[conspire] My election analysis page for Nov. 6th's election is complete

[Rick Moen]

As most folks here know, I've been doing these for about a decade-plus,
first e-mailed to family in plain ASCII and now in proper HTML on the Web.
(It's a _lot_ of work.)

Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018 General Election:
http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2018-11-06.html


Entry point and set of all of these write-ups I'm sill able to find
(going back to 2008) is here:
http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/vote.html

...and that page can be found via my home page.

[Paul Zander]

Your hard work is appreciated.   Sometimes it's hard to find the story behind different propositions.  Then the campaigns usually focus on some particular detail that they think will motivate voters.

From: Rick Moen <***@linuxmafia.com>
To: ***@linuxmafia.com
Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2018 2:19 AM
Subject: [conspire] My election analysis page for Nov. 6th's election is complete

As most folks here know, I've been doing these for about a decade-plus,
first e-mailed to family in plain ASCII and now in proper HTML on the Web.
(It's a _lot_ of work.)

Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018 General Election: 
  http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2018-11-06.html


Entry point and set of all of these write-ups I'm sill able to find
(going back to 2008) is here:
http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/vote.html

...and that page can be found via my home page.

[Rick Moen]

Your hard work is appreciated.   Sometimes it's hard to find the story
behind different propositions.  Then the campaigns usually focus on
some particular detail that they think will motivate voters.

Thank you for the kind words.

Basically, all the way back into the 1980s, I realised many ballot
propositions were an iceberg problem: You needed more background
and a little insider knowledge of who's for/against them and why,
otherwise you won't be able to cast an informed vote. Since it pissed
me off to realise I might have been gamed a time or two by slick
advertising and surface appearances, I put some effort into studying the
sausage-making.

One of the types of gamesmanship I noticed starting in the 1980s will
probably be familiar: the copycat proposition. Usually, this happens
because moneyed interests want to sandbag an issue that's likely to make
the ballot, so they deliberately craft one mostly similar but with some
differences, the theory being that many voters will be so annoyed by
excessive votable issues that they'll just vote a blanket 'no'. This
has a history of working pretty well, actually.


Ballot propositions are an area where the Web is useful for a change,
as long as you ignore just about everything said in the last couple of
weeks before Election Day (when the big bullshit releases start), in
that I can collect all in one place links to what credible sources of
analysis say about the issues/candidates.

Naturally, some sources of editorials turn out to be mouthpieces for
some identifiable interest or other, and some are (obviously) going to
turn out to be cranks and loons, so caveat lector applies -- but I
try to collect a variety of voices whether I agree with them or not
(though some Overton window boundary-setting is inevitable and
undeniable; but people who think I'm narrow-minded are welcome to
do their own analyses).

I find my running semi-dialogue with Pete Stahl interesting, and
recommend comparing and contrasting his views with mine. Every
California election, Stahl analyses _just_ the ballot propositions
(not any candidates) for his site http://www.peterates.com/ .

We've corresponded, and compared notes. You'll find FWIW that we
usually agree, except on bond measures, where I find California's
(IMO) dangerously high levels of general-obligation bond debt worrisome,
and he has a well-reasoned essay where he argues otherwise.

[Steve M Bibayoff]

Hello,

Post by Rick Moen
http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2018-11-06.html

I did not realize that Konstantinos Roditis, John H. Cox and Mark P.
Meuser was endorsed by American Independent Party(I thought Steven C.
Bailey was already part of the AIP(I know he's not, just acts like he
is)). That makes the choice easy to pick (probably doesn't matter who
they was running against, I would still choose the other person). But
then I see Steve Poizner is endorsed by the AIP, and I agree with
Rick's assessment, he's done a good job before. I'm trying to find if
he has accepted or even acknowledged the endorsement.


Thanks Rick,
Steve

[Rick Moen]

Post by Steve M Bibayoff
I did not realize that Konstantinos Roditis, John H. Cox and Mark P.
Meuser was endorsed by American Independent Party(I thought Steven C.
Bailey was already part of the AIP(I know he's not, just acts like he
is)).

Some years ago, bizarre things happened to AIP. It had been a brand
name of Constitution Party (of Colorado)[1], then they had a big fight
between two factions, each side excommunicated the other, and the
California faction (based out of Davis) won the battle to control the
presence on the California ballot. So, that faction has ended up being
even tinier than the previous theoretically-united Constitution Party
d/b/a AIP outfit. And they stopped holding nominating conventions for
some reason, over the past couple of election cycles, so basically what
now happens is some conclave declares which non-AIP candidates they
endorse.

I think it would be rash to assume that today's (California faction) AIP
endorsing a candidate says anything particular about the candidate, to
be honest. I included that information more out of amusement than
anything else.


[1] There really hasn't been any American Independent Party since
shortly after the heyday of George Wallace. The lingering presence of
that supposed party on the ballot as one of the six California-qualified
political party is just an artifact of California's rules making it
relatively easy to _remain_ on the ballots for additional elections
after meeting the (more stringent) qualifications the first time. So,
AIP, the _real_ AIP, qualified back in George Wallace days, and it's
remained on the ballot in this and a few other states (as a front for
Constitution Party) even after the party folded up its tents because it
draws just enough votes to keep being listed. (I now read that
California is the final place AIP remains on the ballot.)

And, honestly, it's been proven in an _L.A. Times_ investigation a few
years back that many very inattentive Californians register for AIP
because they mistakenly thought that 'American Independent Party' was
the checkbox to select to 'register independent'. _L.A. Times_ talked
to some of the celebrity Californians who made that mistake, and most of
them sort of mumbled a bit, made a lame excuse, and then amended their
registrations. Actress Kaley Cuoco of 'Big Bang Theory' fame was one of
them, I recall. Also Aaron Eckhart, Demi Moore, Sugar Ray Leonard, and
Emma Stone.

The _Times_ found, in checking around, that three out of four AIP
voters selected it by accident. Also, to quote:

Of the 500 AIP voters surveyed by a bipartisan team of pollsters,
fewer than 4% could correctly identify their own registration as a
member of the American Independent Party.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-demi-moore-emma-stone-american-independent-party-20160422-snap-htmlstory.html
http://static.latimes.com/american-independent-party-california-voters/

Party preference percentages in this state, as of 2016:
43% Democratic
28% Republican
24% no party preference
3% AIP

Libertarian, Green Party, and Peace & Freedom are somewhere below that.

That makes the choice easy to pick (probably doesn't matter who

Post by Steve M Bibayoff
they was running against, I would still choose the other person).

Nah, you should of course make up your own mind, but I wouldn't.

Post by Steve M Bibayoff
But then I see Steve Poizner is endorsed by the AIP, and I agree with
Rick's assessment, he's done a good job before. I'm trying to find if
he has accepted or even acknowledged the endorsement.

BTW, I may have gotten gamed about Proposition 12. Need to do some more
reading.

[Rick Moen]

Post by Rick Moen
Some years ago, bizarre things happened to AIP.

I've now footnoted approprate places in
http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2018-11-06.html to clarify just a
bit the bizarre story of American Independent Party and why it's just
a curio in 2018 (and has no connection to George Wallace's AIP).

Post by Rick Moen
BTW, I may have gotten gamed about Proposition 12.

Nope. But I've added some text addressing what critics (PETA, etc.)
have to say.

Also, more generally, polishing and adding coverage links, etc.
FWIW, I'm now personally confident enough in my assessments that
I'll probably mail (or, more probably, carry) in my ballot the moment it
arrives in the mail, instead of waiting for Election Day as I usually
do. In other words, I think I can _now_ rule out having screwed up
on anything.

[Rick Moen]

Post by Rick Moen
I've now footnoted approprate places in
http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2018-11-06.html to clarify just a
bit the bizarre story of American Independent Party and why it's just
a curio in 2018 (and has no connection to George Wallace's AIP).

Yesterday, I expanded the footnote to give a brief version of that
history, and explain why/how the supposed AIP persists as a 'qualified'
political party in California (and nowhere else). Direct link:

http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2018-11-06.html#2